CHF WEEKLY ROUND-UP: June 28 - July 4, 2025.

Market action was curtailed this week with closures for Canada Day on Tuesday and Independence Day closing U.S. markets for half a day on Thursday and all day Friday. Trading volumes tend to decline in July and August, due to reduced participation from institutional investors and traders, which can increase volatility in certain sectors and often result in declining index values. World shares mostly fell on Friday, even as U.S. stocks climbed further into record heights, as the clock ticks down on U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9, 2025, tariff deadline.

Canadian markets continued upward this week as the TSX was up 1.6% and made another new all-time high on Thursday, and again today. The Venture exchange rose by 4.4% to a level not reached since May 2022.  The TSX Composite outperformed the S&P 500 in the first half of the year, led by commodities, gold, and base metal stocks, as well as strong bank earnings in Q2 that provided a boost to TSX-listed financials.

The deadline to reach a new Canada/USA economic and security deal is July 21, 2025. Trump has been demanding, and Carney has limited room to push back. Exports to and imports from the U.S. are declining as Canadian companies seek opportunities in other markets. The grass-roots movement to “buy Canadian” and to boycott travel to the U.S. could be having a greater impact than government-imposed measures.

Federal and provincial leaders are working to dismantle internal trade barriers that push up the cost of goods and make it harder to do business within Canada, but despite some recent legislative changes, it will not be easy or happen quickly.

U.S. markets continued to rise from the early April lows after a report showed the U.S. job market looks stronger than Wall Street had expected. The second half of the year may bring increased volatility with more issues from tariffs, possibly inflation accelerating and also possible dips in U.S. employment, but analysts are still constructive on the U.S. and will look at any major market weakness as an opportunity to “buy the dip”.

House Republicans passed U.S. President Donald Trump’s big multitrillion-dollar tax reduction and spending cuts bill Thursday in Congress, overcoming a Fourth of July deadline. The 90-day pause President Trump put in effect for many tariffs expires next week, and while very few deals have been announced, there may be some flexibility in the deadline. The President could claim that progress is being made with some, or all, of the targeted countries and give them another reprieve, or the President can set a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is “advantageous for the United States and for the American worker”.

The strength of the U.S. economy will be one of the most important things for investors to watch in the second half of the year, especially as it pertains to when the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates. If the U.S. economy is strong, there is limited need for rate cuts. Trump continues to mount pressure on Fed Chair Powell to implement rate cuts sooner, aiming to reduce future debt funding costs. A rate cut is still expected in September and likely in December, as inflation cools back to the Fed’s 2% target and the labour market cools as we progress into the second half of the year.

Gold, opening at USD$3,333.60/oz this morning, continues to find support above USD$3,300/oz, despite recent selloffs around U.S. interest rate expectations. The broader uptrend in gold remains intact, despite prices having moved sideways for three months. Geopolitical risks and sovereign debt concerns could drive the price higher, clawing its way towards USD$4,000/oz. Silver, opening at USD$36.90/oz this morning, could face another shortage this year and next. With a recovery in industrial activity, a weaker U.S. dollar, and declining interest rates, silver could break above the critical level of USD$37.50, potentially triggering a rally that brings the price closer to USD$40/oz. There's also some potential for a significant spike, possibly hitting between USD$60/oz and USD$80/oz. Platinum, opening at USD$1,383 this morning, is supported by a combination of tight supply expectations, improving industrial sentiment, and technical follow-through from the broader precious metals rally. Platinum demand for catalytic converters on internal combustion engines remains strong as EVs have disappointed in sales and auto manufacturers have returned to conventional engines. Remain exposed to precious metal investments.

Copper, at USD$4.97/lb today, has returned to the price level of early April as tariff concerns fade. Copper supply is struggling to keep up with demand, and the pipeline of new mines is weak. Copper prices need to rise significantly to incentivize companies to build new mines.  Chinese copper smelters are struggling to secure a sufficient supply and are now paying miners to send their material for smelting. The other base and industrial metals are showing some price strength this week. A new metals bull market may be emerging, and with key factors for metal demand in place, it could be more explosive and longer-lasting. Look for entry points.

Critical, battery and electric materials did not make any significant price gains this week as Oversupply and China dominance remains a hinderance to the sector. The Uranium price crept up to USD$77.80/lb this week, but that will not encourage new mine supply so desperately needed to deal with the supply gap.

Today, we would like to introduce CHF’s latest client, Arya Resources Ltd (TSXV: RBZ), a Canadian-based mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition and exploration of critical mineral and precious metal properties in Saskatchewan, Canada. Their flagship properties include the Wedge Lake Gold Project and the Dunlop Nickel Property. They have recently acquired a 100% interest in the highly prospective Ramp East claims, located directly adjacent to the northeast of Ramp Metals' gold discovery.

The Company's Wedge Lake Gold Project is situated in the prolific La Ronge Gold Belt, a region historically known for its multiple past-producing and active gold mines. The Company has an exploration permit, including plans to commence drilling shortly, for its Wedge Lake Gold Project, located at the historic Twin & T6 Gold (Au) zones. The Dunlop Nickel Property hosts historic resources in the extensive Rottenstone formation that could become Canada’s next nickel-producing region. At the Ramp East project, Arya is ready to evaluate the potential for gold in the Rottenstone Domain, long considered a base-metal district, until the Ramp Metals discovery.

Arya is led by an experienced and highly regarded President and CEO, Rasool Mohammad, and a strong board of directors. The market has been very receptive to the Company’s financings to date.

We are pleased to present our round-up of client news released between June 28 and July 4, 2025.

Mining

On July 3, 2025, Arya Resources Ltd. (TSXV: RBZ) announced that it has engaged CHF Capital Markets Inc. (“CHF”), a distinguished Canadian firm specializing in investor relations and capital markets, based in Toronto, Ontario. Cathy Hume, CEO, with more than 40 years of experience in the industry, is the principal contact for the account. CHF is an independent, arms-length supplier of capital market services.

Effective immediately, CHF services will focus on capital markets advisory, digital and social media marketing, refining and strengthening corporate materials for a term of 12 months. CHF will receive a monthly fee of $3,395 plus applicable taxes in addition to reimbursement of any pre-approved expenses. After 12 months, the agreement will continue on a month-to-month basis. Cancellation by either party requires two months’ written notice. The Company will also grant CHF an option to purchase up to 200,000 common shares of the Company, exercisable for a period of three years at $0.25 per share, vesting quarterly for 12 months

On July 4, 2025, Rocky Shore Gold Ltd. (CSE: RSG) announced that it has closed the previously announced transaction with a subsidiary of Barrick Mining Corporation for cash consideration of CAD$975,000.

The Transaction includes all Ontario claims owned by the Company, including the claims subject to an earlier option agreement, which was terminated on closing of the Transaction. The Company retains a variable-rate royalty of up to 0.50% of Net Smelter Returns on the claims; the rate per claim will depend on the preexisting royalty burden on such claim, and Barrick has the right to buy back 50% of the royalty by making a one-time cash payment of CAD$500,000.