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CHF WEEKLY ROUND-UP: March 30 - April 2, 2026

  • Writer: John A
    John A
  • 30 minutes ago
  • 4 min read

Asian shares mostly dipped on Monday as worries continued about soaring oil prices. It appeared that Asian Investors were bracing themselves for the war to last for a longer time. The fear is that higher energy costs will lead to inflation, followed by higher interest rates and a rising U.S. dollar (USD). Inflation could then infect global markets and eventually cut into Asia’s economic growth. On Monday, shares rose moderately in Europe, and in early trading, U.S. futures were also higher. On Tuesday, stocks were surging worldwide as a full-fledged “relief rally” took hold, fueled by news that President Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran. Markets moved higher still on a report that the President of Iran said his country is ready to end the war if the U.S. agrees to its 5-point peace plan. An end to the war was not expected without regime change in Iran. Oil prices were seen easing on Wednesday as hopes grew that it could all end soon. Global markets were softer following the President’s speech last night.


The TSX Composite index gained back 1,153 points on Tuesday and Wednesday, 3.6% to the upside. The Venture exchange was up 7.25 % in those same days. Declines in petroleum-based issuers were offset by rising prices for gold and financials. An odd move since oil production losses due to Iranian attacks on its neighbours will take years to bring back online, and oil deficits and the higher prices will remain with us.


In his speech last night, President Trump confirmed that the United States could end the war in Iran within the next two to three weeks. He said negotiations are still underway, but did not rule out future actions. The S&P 500 bottomed on Monday, down 9.1% from its January 27, 2026, record high, almost at the 10% correction level. Stocks rebounded on Tuesday and Wednesday on news that the U.S. will end the war soon. The S&P 500 held above the 200-Day Moving Average (DMA); nothing good happens below the 200-DMA, especially in an event-driven decline. The DOW and Nasdaq mirrored the gains, but U.S. shares are pointed down in the market this morning. The "market" now expects the Federal Reserve (FED) to hike rates and create tightness to control inflation caused by the oil price shock. The U.S. dollar (USD) remains near its year-to-date high, and the Bond market is still trading within a tight range. Fed Chair Powell, at his final meeting, will not be making any moves. Ultimately, the new Fed Chair is more likely to cut rates to promote liquidity and lift sentiment, which should bring buying back into the precious metals. How does one know when a correction is over? You do not, at least until way after the fact. Market indicators now suggest we are in the post-correction “zone of opportunity.” Be invested in hard assets and commodities.


Gold prices softened following the President’s speech and opened at USD$4,605.50/oz, on the rise this morning. Gold remains the core hedge against monetary instability, chaos, and the weakening confidence in global policy frameworks. Silver is opening at USD$70.68/oz today and continues to track gold while maintaining its typical higher-volatility profile. The broader institutional view remains that silver has not yet fully caught up to gold, leaving room for further upside if the precious metals trend holds. Dip buyers were seen stepping back in. The move suggests the precious metals market still has underlying support, even as rising rate expectations and geopolitical positioning continue to drive short-term volatility.  It may take some time to get there, but USD$6,000/oz for gold remains forecast for sometime in 2026 and even higher prices in 2027 and beyond. Gold prices are expected to begin moving higher again, and investors should remain confident and continue to dollar-cost average. Be ready for a volatile period for silver prices. Look for breakouts to indicate where the price is headed into the second half of 2026.


Base and industrial metals caught a bit of a lift after the President’s speech with copper trading at USD$5.49/lb today, holding firm as the market starts to recover from recent weakness. The first weekly gain since the downturn was tied to global tensions.  Geopolitical tensions are also increasingly evident in industrial metals supply chains. Iranian-linked attacks have damaged aluminum operations in the Middle East, disrupting production and raising concerns about near-term output. At the same time, cost pressures on the metals are building beneath the surface.


In technology and battery materials, cobalt has held steady, lithium prices gained a little, even as prices for battery-ready lithium chemicals were softer. Graphite products showed some strength. There may be a period of post-conflict demand growth as armament stocks have been drawn down and will need to be replaced.


Uncertainty continues, and it will take time for markets to sort things out if the active conflict actually ceases at this time.  Remain alert to buying opportunities.


We are pleased to present our round-up of clients’ news from March 30 to April 2, 2026.


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