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CHF WEEKLY ROUND-UP: March 10-14, 2025

Global markets continue to feel pressure from trade and tariff uncertainties. Threats, unverified claims of harm, and name-calling by the U.S. President have investors looking for safety and moving to investments less likely to be impacted, especially in Europe and Asia. This may all be an overdue correction anyway, but it is not a bear market yet. The uncertainty around tariffs and their potential to trigger a recession continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Volatility of this scale creates opportunities; be ready to act.


The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate for the seventh time in a row on Wednesday, bringing it to 2.75%, with rates below 2% seen as possible by the end of the year. The rate cuts have eased some of the pressure on consumers, but the ongoing trade war with the U.S. has cast a shadow over the economy and consumers' desire to spend. BoC governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the bank will proceed carefully with further rate decisions as it assesses the upward pressures on inflation and downward pressures from weaker demand amid the trade conflict. He also warned that the BoC has limited tools to offset the damage, saying, “Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war.”


The TSX has held up better than the U.S. indices and is only down about 2% year to date, as the heavy presence of resource stocks provides lift. On the Venture exchange, which is up 2.6% year to date, junior miners continue to rally, defying the expectation that these stocks would decline alongside a weakening general market.

 

Thursday, all three major indices in U.S. markets were down over 2%, the worst day since 2022, following four weeks of losing ground. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 4%, well into correction territory.  As a subset of the S&P 500, the big 7 tech stocks are near bear market range. Trump has admitted that there might be what he called a "Period of Transition". Remember when inflation was "Transitory"? Analysts’ targets for the S&P 500 at the end of 2025 and 2026 have been scaled back to 6400 and 7200 but are still looking up.


The U.S. Treasury reported that the U.S. budget deficit for the first five months of fiscal year 2025 hit a record $1.147 trillion, as outlays continue to rise faster than revenues. Somehow a government shutdown this week seems to have been avoided. The U.S. Fed will make a monetary policy statement on March 18, 2025. Data that support a rate cut have appeared. Still, the uncertain economic outlook amidst the likely global impact of tariffs is an issue for Chair Powell, who has pointed out that it is essential to separate the trend from the noise at the current juncture. The Fed might maintain the status quo in March and consider rate cuts in the next meeting if greater clarity should appear on the trade policy front. The U.S. dollar has posted two months of declines to its lowest since mid-October 2024.


Gold had a positive week, coming off its support base and punching through the USD$3,000/oz barrier this morning before settling back to USD$2,993/oz at the time of writing.  The past year has been great for gold, and the big gold producers have performed well. Bullish action is seen spreading into more gold developers with high-quality projects and many explorers with important discoveries. Silver exceeded USD$34.00/oz this morning and is sitting at USD$33.90. The gold/silver ratio is at extreme highs, and a reversion to more normal levels could see silver soar in price.  The price of silver has run ahead of the shares of the miners, and they could be ready to catch up.


Base and industrial metals showed some strength this week, with copper and nickel reaching three- and six-month highs. This is probably driven by consumers trying to stock up ahead of U.S. tariffs. Long-term issues of metal supply and the concentration of production in China remain and will not be solved quickly. Upward pressure on prices will continue to emerge.

Battery and critical materials are still in a six-month slump with no sign of a breakout, held down by export restrictions on materials and technology being placed by China and the increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. Cobalt did make the jump to USD$13.25/lb., a one-year high, likely as consumers ramped up buying to get ahead of increased tariffs on Chinese producers. The current level of uncertainty needs to settle down before real movement can be seen in this sector.  The very rare critical material, cesium, has been a bright spot in the sector. Look for issuers holding important prospects for this metal.


We are pleased to present our round-up of client news released between March 10 and 14, 2025.


Mining



Karim Rayani, CEO of Falcon Gold Corp., said, "Release of these high-resolution images marks a significant step forward in our exploration program. They not only highlight the excellent quality of the core recovery but also provide tangible evidence of the promising geological features we are beginning to uncover at the Great Burnt Copper-Gold Project. It's still early days in our first phase of exploration; however, we believe what we are seeing is evidence of an extensive mineralized system."





Technology



In early Fall, Visionstate will introduce a new inspections application aimed at streamlining the auditing process for facility managers assessing cleaning quality. This standalone application will seamlessly integrate with WANDA™, offering a comprehensive end-to-end solution, facilitating enterprise-scale reporting and analytics, and representing a new revenue stream for the company.


Visionstate continues its collaboration with the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute (Amii) to develop an AI model that intelligently designs cleaning schedules and optimizes routing. This innovation addresses the complexity and time-consuming nature of facility operations, leveraging AI to enhance efficiency. The company anticipates completing the model in Q4 2025, introducing another standalone product and revenue stream. Shannon Moore, President of Visionstate IoT Inc., said: "This development is transformational for facility management. By harnessing the power of AI, we're turning complex tasks into optimized processes, setting a new standard in the industry."


In response to Ontario's new legislation, O. Reg. 480/24, under the Occupational Health and Safety Act, which mandates the recording of washroom cleaning activities effective January 1, 2026. Visionstate has updated the WANDA™ software to meet these specific requirements.

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